Partisan Free Politics

Pakistan is a diverse nation struggling under the rule of a Secular-Progressive Military Dictator. Even as President Musharaf has installed himself as ‘President for Life’ (however short that may be); he has also enacted legislation such as the Women’s Protection Act (which ostensibly makes rape illegal), and brought large amounts of economic aid to the country. While I am not and nor feel the need to defend the man, he is said to see himself as an Ataturk type leader (I see him as very Pinochet-esque).

To the point.

As Pakistan continues to roil internally, trouble is brewing on the Eastern front. In November of 2006 a bi-partisan Congress passed the United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act, granting India access to Nuclear fuel and civilian technology. Though approved by the U.S., this act is still being debated by some in India. Does this account for some of the recent stress between the U.S. and Pakistan?

Meanwhile in parallel, India has been negotiating with Australia (the worlds largest owner of Uranium) for more Uranium as well, but this Uranium may not have the same civilian attachments. While Pakistan may not be ready to openly rebuke the U.S., it has stated that the Australian Uranium deal may re-kindle the Nuclear Arms race.

This is an interesting and dangerous situation for several reasons.

1. While India is clearly trying to expand its civilian capacity to generate power, it is also an aspiring super-power. Beyond Pakistan, China is it’s main regional competitor. They already fought one war in 1962 before owning The Bomb – the next war would be cataclysmic.
2. To keep up in an arms race, Pakistan will need Uranium from somewhere and it is not likely to get it from the U.S. Therefore, this arms race will push them closer to China, Russia, or (more frightening) Iran. Pakistan already has close relations with Iran’s nuclear program (thanks to Abdul Qadeer Khan). This would be the most logical choice, as Iran has lots of Uranium, but needs the technology and Pakistan has the technology, but needs the Uranium. I doubt China and Russia would give up the chance to increase their standing with Pakistan either.
3. Pakistan has been a traditional ally of the United States, since Independence (marked by the recent 60 year anniversary), however, even as the U.S. alliance with India is making more and more sense – can we afford to push a nuclear arm wielding largely anti-U.S. country further toward, Russia, China, and Iran?

The future role of the United States of America lies in the balance of questions such as these. I hope our next President has answers to these important foreign policy questions – what do you think?