Partisan Free Politics

Not that I didn’t enjoy the new primetime expanded-cable summer series that was “The Endless Procession of Primary Debates,” presented by MSNBC, FoxNews, YouTube, and just about any and every interest group you can think of, but the third quarter numbers are in and I’m expecting a big shake-up to really kick off the 4th quarter stretch run in a higher gear.

 First, the news of the morning has the Republican field narrowed to eight.  Sam Brownback, who I’ve been saying needs to drop out for months, will announce tomorrow that he is ending his run for the GOP’s nomination.  Brownback’s campaign effectively ended when he was beaten in the Iowa Straw Poll by both Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.  As a Senator from Kansas, Iowa represented Sam’s best shot to break into the top tier among the early states, and ultimately his loss to Huckabee sealed the deal (given that both draw the majority of their appeal from the same base, midwest social conservatives, and that his platform contains nothing substantively different from any of the other establishment candidates.)

 Brownback’s announcement comes on the heals of the release of Q3 fundraising numbers, which clearly show that the field of viable candidates has effectively narrowed.  Of the nine official mainstream candidates, only three are still running fiscally sound campaigns: Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and Dr. Ron Paul, and only Thompson and Paul were able to actually bank money by raising more Q3 Primary cash than they spent.  Paul’s campaign numbers are, perhaps, the most intriguing, as his campaign has had to deal with a widespread media blackout, disgruntled state party chairman, and exclusion from many privately sponsored functions, but has overcome all that to bank more than $5 million in primary cash on hand at the end of Q3.  Even more telling is where this money is coming from, as the Paul campaign leads all candidates (including Dems) in donations from military personnel, and finishing 2nd, to Romney, among GOP candidates in money coming from the key primary state of New Hampshire.  Paul’s recent performance, including a week in which the campaign drew over a million in donations and a 114% increase in donations from Q2 to Q3, has forced all of the prop betting lines to slash odds again:  betED.com cut Paul’s odds from 25:1 all the way to 10:1 to win either the nomination or the general, Bodoglife.com, which offers the longest odds on Paul, cut odds for the nomination from 17:1 first to 14:1, and now to 13:1, while Sportsbook.com slashed Paul’s odds down to 6:1 to win the election and 4:1 to take the GOP nomination (general election odds equal to John Edwards, and ahead of Mitt Romney.)  Paul’s surge has even been noted by the RNC who included him as one of five candidates invited to the exclusive Republican National Committee Presidential Trust Dinner, a fundraiser on October 16th that garnered more than $5 million in donations for the GOP’s general election push.

Among the financially troubled campaigns is former front-runner John McCain who continues to disappoint across all metrics, and at this point it is only name recognition and stubborn pride that keeps the Straight Talk Express moving.  At the end of the 3rd Quarter, McCain’s campaign has less than $1.7 million in primary cash on hand, and is still on the hook for slightly over $1.7 million in outstanding debt, effectively leaving his campaign running in the red.  McCain isn’t the only one running red, however.  Anti-immigration Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo raised just less than $770K in the 3rd Quarter, but spent more than $1.2 million, leaving his campaign with only about $107,000 in cash on hand, and that with still almost $300,000 in outstanding debt.  But media darling Mitt Romney, not surprisingly from cash-flush Massachussets, tops all GOP candidates in outstanding debt, with a whopping $17.35 million in outstanding loans, with the majority of that coming from his personal fortune.  Romney also claimed the top spot amongst his GOP challengers in both 3rd Quarter contributions (~$18 million, including $8.5 million he loaned to his campaign) and 3rd Quarter spending (~$21 million) leaving him, yet again, in territory more familiar to his Democratic challengers.

What can now be understood as the “second-tier,” those campaigns that are not yet bankrupt but have yet to make any real financial gains, includes Huckabee (just over a million in Q3 fundraising, and just over $600K in cash on hand,) Congressman Duncan Hunter (just over $500K in Q3 fundraising, and just over $80K in cash on hand,) and the soon to be defunct Brownback campaign.  Huckabee’s campaign seems to have completely exhausted the Iowa Straw poll and Colbert bumps, but I imagine his campaign will stumble through the early contests and then try to lineup for a VP nod, so I can only assume that Hunter will be the next to follow Brownback out the door leaving a field of seven candidates that will probably stick through at least the initial rush of primaries (Tancredo is too focused on pushing his one issue, immigration, though he could drop out if Thompson makes it a key plank in his campaign or finances continue to dry up, and McCain is still stuck in a delusional fantasy that hopes he can rekindle the magic that won him New Hampshire in 2000, and makes him feel like he still matters.)

So we’re now heading for the home stretch, there is less than three months before the early contests begin, and this is where we really get a look at the candidates’ mettle.  Will Romney continue to pour his personal fortune in to keep his campaign afloat, and will his Massachussets/Mormon values be able to appeal to Iowans and South Carolinians?  Will Giuliani be able to lean on his sound fiscal background to distract Republican primary voters from videos like this, stories like this, and a long history of positions like these?  Will Thompson be able to ride Arthur Branch’s folksy charm, and NBA Power Forward stature to a Reaganesque win at the convention?  Or will Dr. Paul’s unique message of liberty and strong internet base turn-out and shock the world full of people that I’ve had to put up with saying, for months, that he has no chance at the nomination?

Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: this is clearly one of the most interesting, and important, races in the history of our great country.  And we still haven’t even seen the interesting affects of a possible independent run by another NY Mayor, Mike Bloomberg, or the most intriguing annoucement yesterday that Stephen Colbert plans to run.  Now some might laugh at Colbert’s bravado, and you should because he is a hilarious guy, but you also have to realize that he has, through the use of his very popular show which  celebrated its 2nd anniversary yesterday, orchestrated victory in contests to name a bridge in Hungary (a contest the Hungarian government eventually ignored,)  as well as a minor league hockey mascot, the Saginaw Spirit’s Steagle Colbeagle.  More importantly, Colbert hails from South Carolina, which holds a key early primary, and he appears to be planning to exploit that by running a SC-focused campaign.  What will happen next… all I know is you better strap yourselves in, and in the words of a noble soul:

Getcha popcorn ready…